EconOcon is planning its company picnic. The only thing that will cancel the picnic is a thunderstorm. The Weather Service has predicted dry conditions with probability 0.2, moist conditions with probability 0.45, and wet conditions with probability 0.35. If the probability of a thunderstorm given dry conditions is 0.3, given moist conditions is 0.6, and conditions is 0.8, what is the probability of a thunderstorm? If we know the picnic was indeed canceled, what is the probability moist conditions were in effect?
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